Ирина Звягельская

Ирина Звягельская

Образование: Ленинградский государственный университет, 1960.
Кандидатская диссертация: "Роль армии в формировании внешней и внутренней политики Израиля", ИМЭМО, 1976; докторская диссертация: "Политика США в конфликтах на Ближнем и Среднем Востоке при администрации Картера и Рейгана", Институт востоковедения АН СССР, 1990.
Профессиональная деятельность: С 1970 по 1979 г. работала в ИМЭМО АН СССР. С 1979 г. по настоящее время работает в Институте востоковедения РАН. В 1992 преподавала в Американском университете (Каир). Читала лекции в университетах США, стран Западной Европы; регулярно выступает на международных конференциях и симпозиумах.
Зав. сектором международных вопросов Центра арабских исследований Института востоковедения РАН . C 1991 г. — зам. директора МОО Центр стратегических и политических исследований. С 2001 г. — профессор кафедры востоковедения МГИМО.
Автор более 100 печатных работ на русском, английском, немецком и французском языках, включая книги и главы в коллективных монографиях. Член диссертационных советов Института Востоковедения РАН и Института стран Азии и Африки.
Иностранные языки: английский, французский.

Научные интересы: Конфликтные ситуации, проблемы безопасности, международные отношения (преимущественно на Ближнем Востоке и в Центральной Азии).

M.D.: Israel and Palestine are being tossed around: from escalations to more or less successful negotiations. What do you think will be the result of the latest negotiations breakdown and aggravation of situation between Israel and Palestine? 

Irina Zviagelskaya: You know, that the kidnapping of there Israeli teenagers caused this situation. As the security services failed to locate them, Israel resorted to the military actions and arrested dozens of Palestinians who were already released according to the previous agreements. Now there is an ongoing tightening of Israeli position. Israel has accused Hamas of the abduction. But many experts believe, it was not necessarily Hamas to kidnap them. There are many other organizations that act among Palestinians and practically uncontrolled, so they could do it deliberately in order to turn Israeli’s anger against Hamas. Moreover, many people in Israel are disturbed by the creation of Palestinian government of the national unity, though it is a technical one. There are many reasons that have caused the regular escalation of the situation and they are unlikely to be eliminated. In any case, I am very pessimistic concerning the peace talks. As we know, the promises of State Secretary Kerry that the Americans would swiftly achieve a breakthrough turned out to be unrealistic.  The issues to resolve in order to achieve peace are far too complicated.  Moreover, I believe that violent and bloody processes taking place in the region are completely unlikely to encourage compromise in Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

 

M.D.: How do you think the US overtures with Iran and its potential exit from isolation will influence on the situation in the Middle East and on Arab-Israeli conflict in particular?

I.Z. : As far as the US policy towards Iran is concerned it can hardly be called overtures.  The question is to make Iran renounce its nuclear program. And this corresponds to the interests of everybody; Russia is among the members of the negotiations. Another issue is whether Iran is interested itself to exit the isolation, dispose of all sanctions and reintegrate into the world politics and economy. Not surprisingly, Mr Rouhani, well known for his balanced view, has become President of Iran. Meantime, several experts have voiced their fears that Washington will get the increase of oil production and decrease of oil prices as a result of removal of sanctions and US-Iranian approach. I find this logic doubtful, and taking into consideration the situation in Iraq, oil prices decline is just impossible.

The exit of Iran from isolation can be very positive.  Iran could especially take active part in the settlement in Syria, were it plays a significant role, as we all know. The second moment is of course the situation in Iraq, where Iran has its own interests and where its role is very important.

The current situation in Iraq is very dangerous. There is a crisis of US policy of state transformation by military interventions. As soon as the Americans left in the end of 2011, everything collapsed. It has collapsed because they had created a confessional regime. Relying on Shia majority they have dismissed the army, where the majority was Sunni, they managed to close BAAS party, which was also mainly supported by Sunni. And thus they have not only created a huge resentful mass of Sunni, but also have set a course towards the creation of regime excluding different ethnic and confessional groups.

We now see the results of what has happened. The struggle against extremist Sunni groups such as Islamic State in Iraq and Levant is top priority now. If they manage to gain a number of military victories and shift the balance of power to their side, that will mean the most grave crisis in the Middle East.

 

M.D. I just wanted to ask about Iraq in particular. Now Washington officially states that the US has no responsibility of the crisis in Iraq. And actually it implies that it is not going to intervene in the crisis. How much should the situation heat to make the politicians take real actions, as Bagdad demands now?

I.Z. : Well, firstly, besides the official statements there are enough expert estimations that directly show, that the US has invested too much in Iraq in due time. We can say that the current administration is not to blame. Of course, it is not Obama’s administration that launched military actions in 2003. It was Bush’es Jr administration. And for sure it is not the administration to be responsible for the regime building in Iraq and the kind of help that was offered to Iraq. However 4,5 thousand US soldiers have died. The military operation and attempts to reform Iraq have cost great money. And everybody knows about it. What has happened in Iraq just indicates the impossibility to transform a society, which is not ready for it by the means of external intervention. This is a crisis of American strategy in the Middle East as well.

Will the US intervene? I had opportunity to read the declarations of the American President who said, “I do not exclude anything”. In general, everything depends on the future course of actions. If the extremists are allowed to win, it will create a great danger not only for Iraq, but for the whole Middle East. Violence and extremist ideas easily overcome the borders. I believe it is very dangerous for Russia, which has its own Islamic extremists, where we face terrorist, where there are examples of Russian soldiers of fortune who fight for the opposition Syria, quite possibly among the insurgents twisted in the same way. Crisis in Iraq should be taken with all the seriousness.

 

M.D.:  Is it possible that the US are just interested in strengthening of ISIS, as once powerful, it could give a final blow to Bashar Assad’s forces, after which the US can strike the Islamists?

I.Z. : It is impossible to predict who will these people strike. The paradox is that Bashar Assad, unacceptable for the US, is currently carrying tasks, which correspond to their interests. He fights the ISIS and other extremists.

Russia is actively returning to the Middle East now. A new, particular era of relations with Saudi Arabia has begun; we are developing the relations with the UAE. The relations with Egypt, with president Al Sisi, are promising. But I would not agree that Russia expels the US from there. Somewhere Russia and the USA keep competing. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian crisis has increased our rivalry including in the Middle East. But in the meantime we have very important field for cooperation there. It is the Syrian crisis settlement, struggle against terrorism and extremism; it is the desire not to let Iran possess nuclear weapons.

 

M.D.: Maybe my question was not completely correct. Is it possible to say, that the Middle East countries have a growing interest to the relations with Russia themselves?

I.Z.: Yes, it is true. Speaking about the social level, the Arabs are generally tired of the Americans. They were enthusiastic about the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia. Because, from their point of view, it has shown the US that not everybody is ready to play by its rules. Furthermore,  many countries in the region always wished to have Russia as a counterbalance in the Middle East.

 

Interviewed by Maria Dubovikova

The Palestinian government of the national unity that took oath on the 2d of July 2014 is a technical one – it consists of ministers who are not members of FATAH and HAMAS. Such composition does not pose any difficulties to maintain the relations between the new government and the states where HAMAS is blacklisted and considered a terrorist organization. According to the head of Palestinian Autonomy Mahmud Abbas this government recognizes Israel and all the agreements previously signed with it and it renounces violence. Thus, highlighting the respectability of the new government Abbas has shown the observers that it will not be influenced by the well-known severe approaches of HAMAS.

Overcoming the divide in the Palestinian movement can positively influence the conflict settlement, granting the accomplishment of the agreements from the Palestinian side if they are achieved. It is time to decide for the Israeli government, which has negatively taken such turn of events. One of the most important tasks for the new government is to prepare for the legislative elections.

The new situation opens the possibility for HAMAS to legitimize by gradually transforming into a parliamentary political party. Essentially, in current conditions, when HAMAS is rapidly loosing support in the Arab world (and is banned in Egypt), it does not have many variants.

Many countries condemn HAMAS as a terrorist organization. How will the accord between HAMAS and FATAH influence the attitude of international community towards Palestine? What are the potential outcomes of the union for the Palestinians themselves?

HAMAS is in fact is widely considered as a terrorist organization. Moreover, the Egyptian government has prohibited the HAMAS activity after the “Muslim Brotherhood”. However, the peace process between the Islamists and FATAH, which took many years without any result, is close to the conclusion. Let’s hope that it will not reverse. It is an important achievement for Palestinians to overcome severe territorial (Gaza – West Bank), ideological and political divides. A united government allows to carry more responsible international policy and to adopt decisions, which will not be canceled, as they will be backed by a consolidated position. The achieved unity strengthens the Palestinian positions in negotiations with Israel. One should not forget that it is an asymmetric conflict between a powerful regional state and a national movement, the Palestinian administration. The international community is not unanimous at the interpretation of the agreement between HAMAS and FATAH. There are already concerns that the Palestinian positions will get harder and that the HAMAS will impose the more radical line on the whole Palestinian government. It is evident that Mahmoud Abbas has made his first sharp statement-condemning Holocaust to chase away such concerns, to show that they are not justified.

The talks between Abbas and Israel ate to end today, 29 April. The decision about the truce with HAMAS and the union of the two parts of the country was taken just before this long awaited event. How is it possible to interpret such turn of events? Does it mean for example that the Palestinians were not willing to the truce with Israel?

As I have already said, firstly, this reflects the desire of Palestinians to strengthen their positions on the negotiations. They are the ones mostly interested in the fair reconcilement, but the movement towards peace becomes very difficult due to the approach to the discussion of principle and most painful questions of utmost importance for both parties – Jerusalem, territories and refugees. On the one hand, the current Israeli government does not have a great desire to make important compromises. On the other hand, it is more and more difficult to content with another set of interim measures – there is a growing criticism in the Palestinian society, mainly among the youth who do not see any prospects. In such context the agreement with HAMAS will alleviate pressure on the administration. The accord with HAMAS does not only reflect momentary issues, but it shows an evolution of Palestinian Islamists towards the political pragmatism. Having arrived at power in Gaza in 2006, they had to gradually acquire the management experience, take responsibility for the survival of the population in the conditions of blockade.  This normally has a sobering influence on those who has got used to rely mainly on the methods of force. The movement was conducting a social work among the population, but had to increase its scale in the new circumstances. HAMAS has not renounced the ideological principles crucial for it: it does not recognize Israel and the Oslo process agreements and it does not condemn terrorism. This allows Israel to refuse from the negotiations with HAMAS, but not the contacts with them. It is enough to recall the efforts that have led to release of the captured Corporal Gilad Shalid. HAMAS has made a certain path and its further evolution will be faster in the context of collaboration with Palestinian leaders skilled in politics. The creation of national unity government will mean an agreement with the principle “two peoples – two states”, which in fact means both recognition of Israel and readiness to negotiate with it.

How grave for Palestine is the Israeli announcement that it will cease transferring money (about 100 million USD) gathered as taxes on behalf of the West Bank government?

Such kind of sanctions will be painful for Palestinians, they will leave employees without salary; deteriorate the general situation on the West Bank, which does not have a big budget anyway. Unfortunately, it is not the first time when Israel resorts to such measures.

 

Inteviewed by A, Zavadskiy. 
Previously published on the MGIMO web-site in Russian.
Четверг, 16 Январь 2014 15:17

Once again about Ariel Sharon

Ariel Sharon was a prominent figure. He was loved and hated, he was admired and treated as a hero, he was cursed not only by his Arab enemies but also by adherents of ultra-left and ultra-right forces inside Israel. He was a source of irritation and an object of national pride for his countrymen. Ariel Sharon’s personal character was formed by a specific epoch that demanded courage and heroism and at the same time did not put restraints on the use of any military and political means. He lived his life in a struggle for building the State of Israel, for its consolidation, in a fight with challenges that this State had been facing.

 

Sharon passed a long way in the army, and became a well-known military leader, and was glorified for his struggle with Arab armies on the battlefields, and for his war on terrorism. The Israel citizens seen him as a defender, that can ensure the safety of people. The majority voted for him during the Second Intifada of the 2000. At that epoch the suicide bombers have come on the foreground and the society was seeking for a strong hand and believed in its “Arik” as in the savior.

Being in the army, Sharon sometimes undertook reckless decisions, although mostly won, than lost. His tank breakthrough through the Suez Canal and the raid in Egyptian rear during the war of 1973 are studied in military academies.

During his military career he spilled much blood, and it was not always justified. It’s enough to recall the Israeli invasion in Lebanon in 1982, when Ariel Sharon occupied the post of the Minister of Defense, or endless bombardments of Beirut, or a bloody story in Sabra and Shatila, when Christian militia slaughtered Palestinians in refugee camps, and the Israeli army has done nothing to stop its allies.

Later there were investigations in Israel, claims to the International Court, and Sharon’s career was heavily hurt, but things gradually returned to normal. He has made a bright political career finally taking the prime minister seat.

And here we see slightly other Sharon, who has not betrayed his principles but who has changed the means to achieve his goals. All his life he was trying to assure the security of Israel, to achieve a stable arrival of immigrants and to make Israel a viable state that nobody could threaten. These were his priorities. They meant both the creation of the settlements and the pressure on the Palestinians and on the Arab countries. However new political reality and new high level of responsibility mad him make adjustments to his tactical steps.

Sharon, being one of the most strenuous supporters of the settlement policy, has made unpopular decision, not among the majority of population, but among the most right wing members of his own party, members of several religious parties and the Settlement Council. He assured the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip – the army and the settlers left the Strip, it was a very considerate turn.

Sharon, obviously, considered strengthening of Israel as the most important task, while Gaza was useless for that – one more bane. The decision of the PM meant his reluctance to negotiate with the Palestinians, disbelief for the ability to achieve any results profitable to the Israeli and firm believe in the idea that the Israeli leaders should unilaterally decide which territories are needed for the state. The paradox in such approach is thet leaving Gaza Sharon was demolishing the settlements which he had been forcing, building and supporting himself, though he had never questioned the necessity to build them on the West Bank.

It is often asked now, why do we speak so much about Ariel Sharon. He had left his political life long ago, and he has been severely struggling for his life for very long. The discussions, which have recently arouse, prove that Sharon has taken a whole epoch with him. He was one of the few left from his generation, who made all their best to establish the Israeli state on the map, to make it strong and viable. There is no such figure in the Israel now, as the time gives birth to its own heroes. Moshe Dayan, Yigal Allon, Yitzhak Rabin, Ezer Weizman, Ariel Sharon were the military, who became politicians and who were following different political views, but who chose the most important role in the life – the service to their people and state. Ariel Sharon was so ill and was leaving for so long that all his hard critics have become silent long ago. Many Israelis remembered him with gratitude and forgot and forgave his wrongdoings and mistakes which were due to his hard and tough spirit, but which lacked greed.

 

Available in Russian in one click (pdf):

Вторник, 26 Ноябрь 2013 15:37

Interview with Irina Zvyagelskaya: all over the Middle East

 

Maria Dubovikova: I would like to start our conversation with the question we ask all the IMESClub experts: How would you characterize this decade for the Middle East?

Irina Zviagelskaya: Decade? If you tell me at what time the countdown begins?.. 

M.D. From 2003!

I.Z.: From 2003... Basically, it depends on what we are talking about. There is a number of problems, which, unfortunately, have remained unsolved, and have turned into a kind of Middle Eastern routine. I mean, first of all, the Arab-Israeli conflict. Unfortunately this conflict has not undergone any major positive changes. And we still say that it is necessary for the Palestinians to make a deal with Israel, for Israel  - to be more attentive to the Arab Peace Initiative, and for the members of the "Quartet" - to be more active in this direction. But what happens... From time to time, as we know, the Israelis and the Palestinians gather and talk, and even now there are ongoing negotiations. But, unfortunately, the result is very negative, just as expected. And I fear that the conflict will continue for some time. 

As far as the overall situation in the Middle East is concerned, I believe that the changes are rather serious. First of all, they are connected with the change of regimes. These regimes were leaving for different reasons and on different occasions. In  2003, the U.S. and the allied forces invaded Iraq and the dictator Saddam Hussein was overthrown, which, unfortunately, has not led to a complete stabilization of the situation in Iraq, but to the radical  change of  interconfessional ratio in the political system. And I must say that general Saddam Hussein’s leave has marked the beginning of the leave of other leaders who had spent a long time at their places, and to whom we have accustomed. If Saddam Hussein’s leave was due to the external factor, other leaders, as we know, began leaving under the influence of the internal factors. Although I do not rule out the external pressure, which also took place. The update of the political face of the Arab world is quite a significant result of this decade.

 

M.D.: The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar are beginning to play one of the key roles in the Middle East now. Due to huge financial resources they have potential influence and ability to push certain initiatives that will be in their geopolitical interests. From your point of view, is their influence on the development of the Middle East positive or negative?

I.Z.: Well, I would not put the question this way, as, if you say that they have a certain influence, pursuing their own interests, then it means that there may be some tactical changes in their position, because the interests are also changing, as well as the idea of what is required in the very moment, and what will be required in the future. But I would like to focus on another issue. First of all, this concerns Qatar. Saudi Arabia has been playing a rather important role in the region for a long time. But Qatar would like to be perceived as a new powerful player, especially in the context of the Arab awakening. A country that has vast financial resources, was able to increase its influence not only using traditional methods, such as arms shipments, aid to the forces solving the problems important for Qatar, and the direct military actions, as it was in Libya, but also by the means of a huge media resource. It is an amazing thing. Because a small Qatar has managed to create such media resource, that puts it in line with the most advanced nations of the world. And I believe that this is an achievement. And I want to focus attention on this. The leverage is changing. And that is very important. Even a small country that we all considered quite a traditional state from a purely formal point of view, basing on its political system, is able to use such instruments. This very traditional state easily manipulates and uses modern methods to influence the minds.

 

M.D.: Let's go a bit back to the beginning of our interview. You have already mentioned the Arab-Israeli conflict. How has the current situation in the region influenced it? How much have the Arab Spring, the Syrian problem affected the opportunity to resolve the conflict?

I.Z.: There is an opinion, and it is essentially possible to agree with, that as a result of all those violent processes taking place in the Middle East and the Arab world, the Arab-Israeli and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular, has faded into the insignificance. It is not insistent anymore. The world community has focused its attention entirely on other countries and processes. But while acknowledging the validity of this conclusion, I still believe that we cannot say that what is happening in the Arab world has just finally put an end to the possibility of a settlement. It was always something not too certain, and it did not change. I would not dramatize the situation too much in this case. It is bad in itself. But you can look at it in a different way. On the one hand, of course, in the current circumstances Israel is not particularly interested in returning the territories, in taking some steps, quite painful for the country, that are, moreover, difficult to explain to a large part of the Israeli population. But on the other hand, in the face of large-scale uncertainty that rules over the whole region, any kind of certainty in its relations with Palestine would be to its advantage. So I'm not sure that everything is lost. But I am not optimistic. I think that a lot of effort will be required to solve this problem.

 

M.D.: And how does the changes in the US policy, in the US attitude to the conflict, to Israel and current establishing of bridges with Iran, with the new president Rouhani, influence the process of conflict resolution?

I.Z.: The U.S. attempts to enter into a real dialogue with Rouhani respond primarily to American interests. And I'm not sure if it leads to deterioration in US-Israeli relations. Of course, Israel can perceive it rather negatively. But it seems to me that, however, this will not have any effect on Israel. It all depends on what will be the outcome of these negotiations. At the same time, there is a slight possibility that Iran will completely renounce its nuclear program. I do not believe in it, there are too many objects that will obviously continue to work. So, since there is uncertainty, the desire of Israel to consider Iran as an existential threat will remain. Even if the United States conduct negotiations with Iran, this threat will persist, because Israel is looking at Iran from its own point of view. There is a red line for Israel about which it is constantly talking. Actually this red line was first mentioned in the General Assembly by Netanyahu. Israel will consider the possibility of its own unilateral action. Clearly this shows the desire to chill the US willingness to establish a dialogue with Iran. We'll see what happens. In general, while there are changes, some things in the Middle East remain constant. I am not sure whether it is fortunate or not. And in particular, I am not sure that the arrival of a new president can radically change Iranian policy in the region and make it give up the nuclear program.

 

M.D. From your point of view, will the Syrian civil war play a positive or a negative role in the relations between Russia and the United States, particularly in regard to all the Middle East problems?

I.Z.: I have always been thinking that, unfortunately, Syria has recently become a rather sharp issue dividing Russia and the United States due to a number of circumstances. And this is a dangerous trend. In the end, it's clear that our relations with the U.S. are very important as any relations between two great powers, influencing the development of world. It causes real anxiety when such a question as Syrian, which, despite its significance is still not ranked first in the United States and Russia priorities, becomes a bone of contention, and contributes to the deterioration of relations not only in the Middle East, but also beyond its boundaries. I consider positive what happened as a result of the initiative to destroy the Syrian chemical weapons. And not only because our diplomacy has shown its professionalism in this case. I think that the main positive part is just the fact that it was a compromise situation. That both the U.S. and Russia were able to find common ground on this issue, were able to feel how important this question is for the future joint steps for a political settlement of the situation. In this case, it's clear that the destruction of chemical weapons does not affect the civil war and the opposition parties per se. But this reveals a very important point. The fact is that in current situation Assad becomes a partner in certain activities and negotiations. In these circumstances it is not possible to ignore him. Anyway, his willingness to destroy weapons and to participate in this process enhances his legitimacy. Therefore, in my opinion, all the useless suggestions that “he should go away first, and then we'll talk”, become irrelevant. There are various ways to treat Al Assad. But the fact remains certain. The agreement on the national reconciliation will be impossible without his participation. He may not personally take part in negotiations, but it will still involve people that are part of his entourage, who are from his government. In my opinion this is the starting point. The opposition requirements are unrealistic. But this just affirms that the US and Russia should act together. Although I believe their ability to influence the rivals is still limited, however, given the United States and its allies, and given the position of Russia, we can hope that eventually, maybe not now, we will still be able to induce the parties to sit down at the negotiating table.

 

M.D. Do you think Geneva-2 will eventually take place? Chances that it won’t take place are still rather strong. And if it never takes place, what are the consequences of such a failure for states, both regional and extra-regional, in particular, such as the U.S., Russia, say, France?

I.Z.: Well, I can say that, of course, there is very little hope that it will be held in the near future. And this is connected, first of all, as we all know, with a very fragmented opposition. Various organizations within the opposition hold different opinions, always the hard ones. The director of our institute Vitaly Naumkin even said that it is better not to try to create a single delegation of the opposition, but to let them form three or four delegations, and make each put its own signature. This option is also theoretically possible. It is extremely difficult to imagine how they can be gathered under one roof, though some attempts have already been made. Lets suppose, that despite all the efforts the Geneva-2 will not take place. I think it will bode ill. Firstly, it will show an absolute weakness of the international community. Its inability to solve such problem as a termination of a bloody conflict, civil war in a relatively small Middle Eastern country. Secondly, I believe, it will show a very low level of interaction between the global and regional international actors, which is also a very negative factor. And basically, I think, if no political decisions are taken, no one knows for how long people will continue to suffer and die in Syria. We must do everything to stop this process.

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