The solution of the Palestinian problem did not come closer last year, though some new tendencies in the approaches of the main interested parties have emerged in the context of controversial and rather dramatic events. The decision to address the UN Security Council to recognize the Palestinian state and cease the Israeli occupation by November 2017 was made by Mahmud Abbas as an alternative strategy due to the several factors. Firstly, obviously, he has come to the conclusion that in the current circumstances the political solution of the problem through the negotiations with Israel seems increasingly less obvious. The US have tried to monopolize the settlement process, but the attempts of John Kerry, the Secretary of State, to relaunch the peace process were in vain, having even created irritation of Israeli government. The Quartet of mediators was still marginalized and was not assuring the continuation of the talks, while the attention of the majority of the international community was taken by the tragic events in Iraq and Syria that are also connected with the victorious march of the ISIS militants. This organization which has astonishing financial capabilities, ideological attractiveness, and which enjoys large support from the part of population from the Middle East and other countries despite its extreme cruelty, has filled the major part of political and media space. Secondly, in the current situation Mahmud Abbas felt the decrease of support from his electorate, mainly from the increasingly radical youth, which demands active actions. There is no accident that the HAMAS support by the Palestinians has greatly increased after the Israeli operation in Gaza (7 June – 26 August 2014) under the code name “Protective Edge”. Despite the great casualties and the fact that HAMAS has fairly provoked the full scale Israeli operation, for the majority of the Palestinians they were still heroes, who are still on the front lines of the struggle. Compared to them Mahmud Abbas sometimes seemed indecisive, incapable to achieve practical results. The Palestinian manifestations in the East Jerusalem and on the West Bank (some observers even started to speak about “the third intifada”), the aggravation of the opposition, which attracted the international attention, were creating a background and additional momentum to activate the political initiatives.
And, finally, no doubt that the Israeli government’s line of policy has provoked deep Palestinian leader’s deep pessimism. It seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Lieberman who are not interested in the partition of Palestine due to political and ideological motives, were trying to shift the balance of power in the conflict by putting the settlement of relations with the “moderate” states of the Arab world on the first place instead of the settlement of the Palestinian problem. Despite their preoccupation with the ISIS advancement and increase of chaos in the Arab East and even their interest to normalize the relations with Israel, the Arab regimes still are unable to agree to that without creating a Palestinian state or at least without some serious steps in that direction.
Netanyahu’s attempt to pass a law about the Jewish nature of Israel according to which only Jews would have national rights while the other ethnic groups would only have individual rights, has not only lead to the government crisis and snap elections in 2017 but has also made Palestinians very suspicious. The matter is that in 1993 when Y. Arafat agreed to recognize Israel there was no question about any Jewish nature of the state, depriving its other citizens from the national rights. Now Netanyahu demands the Palestinians to accept the Jewish nature of the state as a preliminary condition, and besides in the interpretation included in the new (not adopted yet) law. Lieberman proposed even more severe propositions by connecting the solution of the Palestinian issue with the exchange of territories, what is more, with the Arab citizens of Israel, who, according to him, should be motivated economically to become the citizens of the Palestinian state.
In this situation Mahmud Abbas has decided to bring the issue to the international level. Let alone some positive trends towards the increase of support to the Palestinians in Europe. In case of success Israel would have been put in front of an accomplished fact of international recognition of the Palestinian state and the occupation of the Palestinian territories would have automatically turned into the occupation of the territory of a sovereign state. In such case Abbas would have achieved a political break through even without starting negotiations with Israel. The rejection of the project of the resolution in the UN Security Council has not closed a possibility to join the Rome Statue of the International Criminal Court for Abbas, which will allow him to bring charges against Israel for military crimes by bombarding it by all sorts of lawsuits. On the 2d of January 2015 the Palestinian delegation has submitted the documents to join the Rome Statue and also applications to join 20 international conventions and pacts. Palestine will officially become a member of the International Criminal Court on the 1st of April 2015. This has become possible as in 2012 the UN General Assembly has voted to grant Palestine the status of an observer-state, but not a UN member. Meanwhile, neither Israel, nor the US are members of the Rome Statute and are against Palestinians joining it.
Despite the existing and, probably, coming difficulties, the Palestinian government once again was able to attract attention to the realization of national rights of the Palestinian people. Some observers suppose that some changes on global and regional level may follow the next year. Particularly, the strengthening of the Palestinians on the international arena, the activity of Islamist extremist organizations and the ending presidential term of Obama may motivate the US for more active policy on the Middle Eastern direction. Obama, having become a “lame duck” may especially allow himself exercise more pressure on Israel. All the more so that the US-Israeli pact of strategic partnership signed by him on 19 December 2014 where Israel is called “a major strategic partner” of the US, protects him from the criticism of those who is against the US pressure on Israel (fictional or real). Moreover, this document says that the US will support the Israeli government in its attempts to achieve the political settlement with the Palestinian people that will result in two states living together with peace and security. This is a kind of signal to Netanyahu – the US will improve the Israeli security, but in the meantime the administration will take steps corresponding to the national interests of its own country. However, in order to take such steps Obama’s administration will have to wait till the creation of the new government in Israel after the elections in March 2015, and it may become more right-wing and less flexible that the previous one.
In the rapidly changing situation an attempt of the new monopolization of the settlement process by the US seems unlikely as it will merely bring any results. It seems, that both the US and Russia could activate the peace process together despite the existing frictions. The threat of radicalism and terrorism easily overcoming the borders is one more factor demanding more active steps form the Quartet in general and from the particular EU members, the UN, League of Arab States, the political powers in Israel striving for peace, from all those who are ready to bring a contribution to the settlement of long and so hopeless Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Published in Russian on MGIMO-University web-site.
